Israel was baited into a war whose strategic intent was to create a Palestinian State, polarize the Israeli society, and force America to push for Regime Change in Israel. So far, no state actor has come out publicly to declare war against Israel, though Iran, Russia, and China have deployed a seemingly coordinated hostile psychological warfare campaign against Israel.
Antony Kagirison
Israel is fighting two simultaneous wars that were planned and are being executed concurrently – a hot war and a cold war. On October 7, 2023, Israel was a victim of coordinated surprise attacks by Hamas terrorists that were initiated with a barrage of 3000 missiles and resulted in Israel suffering over 1000 fatalities within a span of 6 hours. Hamas described these attacks as Operation Al-Aqsa Flood while Israelis called them the Simchat Torah Massacre.
In terms of perception management, this attack can be described as propaganda of the deed because the attackers (Hamas) and its benefactors knew that the attack would garner spectacularly extensive global media coverage owing to the inordinate media focus on Israel, as well as the relatively media-rich Israeli environment due to Israel being the only liberal Western-grade democracy in the Middle East. This attack marked the beginning of the Hot War.
At the moment, two non-state actors (NSA) are waging war against Israel – Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi in Yemen. So far, no state actor has come out publicly to declare war against Israel, though Iran, Russia, and China have deployed a seemingly coordinated hostile psychological warfare campaign against Israel.
The goal of this psychological warfare campaign is to delegitimize Israel as a responsible member of the world community, and if this fails, then the campaign can bemire the reputations of critical multinational organizations (MNO) such as the United Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) – and if possible – the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Iran’s Conflict with Arab Monarchies and Israelis
For Iran, the Israel-Hamas War gifts it with an opportunity to delegitimize the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) whose anchor state is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). KSA has been a victim of Iranian malicious campaigns that started in 1979 when Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini declared that the Gulf Arab Monarchs are illegitimate rulers like the then deposed Shah Reza Pahlavi.
The GCC includes all Gulf Arab nations except for Yemen, where Iranian allies – the Houthi – are politically and militarily dominant. For this reason, Iran uses its Houthi proxy in Yemen to undermine the GCC and destabilize the region as evidenced by the attacks conducted by Houthis against KSA (including the attacks against Saudi Aramco’s oil processing facilities in Khurais and al-Qaiq), as well as public threats that the Houthis have made against two other GCC member states – Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Houthi Threat to Kenya and Egypt
The Houthi can also disrupt shipping to American allies in Eastern Africa including Kenya where goods, including aid, from Europe can be prevented from reaching the port of Mombasa by nefarious Houthi activities at Bab el-Mandeb strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea.
Also, by closing off the Bab el-Mandeb strait to international shipping, the Houthi have been strangling maritime traffic to the Suez Canal thus denying Egypt revenues, and in effect, negatively impacting the Egyptian economy.
Iran and Saudi Shiites
Additionally, Iran and its allies in Iraq and Yemen desire to incite a Shiite uprising in the Eastern Province of KSA where the majority of the Shia live and where most of the Saudi oil is extracted. Because neither Iran nor its governmental allies in Iraq or Yemen can publicly call on the Shia in KSA to revolt against the government, they now use the Israel-Hamas War as an opportunity to mask their anti-Saudi propaganda as criticism of the Israeli war against Hamas terrorists, as well as criticism of the refusal by GCC member states to allow Houthis to use GCC territory to attack Israel. Basically, Iran is using its Shia allies to dress Houthi propaganda as anti-Israeli propaganda, while stealthily calling on GCC citizens to take up arms to fight against Israel and its allies (including regional GCC allies).
UAE and KSA want to shift the pillars of political legitimacy away from the triad of Arab Nationalism, Anti-Imperialism, and Anti-Zionism to more “modern” pillars of political legitimacy i.e achievement-based legitimacy (that focuses on the economic and social successes of the monarchies) and socio-territorial sovereignty (e.g the Foundation Day in KSA celebrates the founding of KSA and the Saudi identity).
Iran is using its Shia allies to dress Houthi propaganda as anti-Israeli propaganda, while stealthily calling on GCC citizens to take up arms to fight against Israel and its allies (including regional GCC allies).
Antony Kagirison
Shia Expeditionary Force
In the Levant, Iran engages in malicious activities through its Shia Expeditionary Force (SEF) which has militarily fought against Israel as well as Iranian enemies in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. This Expeditionary Force conducts these attacks from bases in Syria and Lebanon (where Hezbollah is legitimized and officially hosted by the Government of Lebanon).
Challenging EU, NATO, and the OECD
Apart from the UN where Russia and China exercise veto power, neither Russia nor China are members of the OECD nor the EU. China and Russia view both OECD and EU as MNOs that provide power amplification platforms to their main rivals – the United States of America (USA), the United Kingdom (UK), and Japan.
Iran, Russia, and China have used their influence across the globe to spread prejudice and animosity against Israel when Israelis are rightfully defending themselves against savage armed enemies. However, this spread of prejudice against Israel is driven by a desire to drive a wedge between Israel and its allies in OECD (where Israel is a member), EU, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Laundering Hostile Anti-Israeli Narratives
Likewise, Russia and China are using their influence in the UN to launder hostile anti-Israeli narratives (including pro-Iranian and pro-Hamas narratives) and thus try to mainstream such narratives to a Western audience through the use of information networks and publicity channels that have been availed to the UN. In other words, the Israel-Hamas War has provided an opportunity for Russia and China to deploy propaganda into the Western World by bypassing the Western Mainstream Media (MSM) via the use of official UN communication channels to reach their target audience (in Europe and North America).
By dressing their narratives as hostile to Israel and Jews, China and Russia get an opportunity to soften up their European and American audience for more nefarious political warfare aimed at undermining the faith and trust that the people of Europe and America have in transparent democratic governance and a robust foreign policy that is geared towards combating hostile state actors like Russia and China that want to undermine democracy, human rights, and legal market economies in favor of autocratic regimes that violate human rights with impunity while sustaining unfair corruption-ridden economies that generate high wealth inequalities and cause great loss of human development potential as measured using the Gini Index and Human Development Index (HDI) respectively. Israeli government officials are correct to note that nation-state supporters of Hamas are non-democratic countries whose citizens suffer from rampant corruption and low HDI, while high Gini Index marks their economies.
At this point, it is clear that there is an information war being waged against Israel. This war is part of a broad political-ideological war that is targeted against Israelis, non-Israeli Jews, and the Western audience in general. By extension, this war targets the democratic world that values human rights, democratic governance, and a transparent/fair market economy that promotes high HDI and low Gini Index. In other words, the war against Israel is a war against the democratic world by both NSAs and rogue State Actors. So far, Russia and China have been conducting psychological operations against Europeans, Americans, and Israelis, even leveraging Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) in their information war campaigns against the West and Israel.
The Israel-Hamas War has provided an opportunity for Russia and China to deploy propaganda into the Western World by bypassing the Western Mainstream Media (MSM) via the use of official UN communication channels to reach their target audience (in Europe and North America).
Antony Kagirison
