The genesis of the rift between William Samoei Ruto and Geoffrey Rigathi Gachagua is Lamu, where Ruto wants to clip the political power of the Kikuyu in favor of Somalis, Sunni Arabs, and Cushitic Muslims under the pretext of what Ruto calls “negotiated democracy”. Rigathi is also a victim of malice by the Kalenjin cabal (explained later), though not its only victim as this cabal has already tried and failed to execute a regime change in the Democratic Republic of Congo under the auspices of the Anglo-American-backed NiloHamitic Axis that brings together William Ruto, Dictator Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, and Dictator Paul Kagame of Rwanda.
If Rigathi Gacahagua succeeds William Samoei Ruto as the President of Kenya, he’ll be facing a jihadist insurgency in Kenya and an intelligence service infested with Islamists plotting his assassination. Will President Gachagua win the war against al-Qaeda and Islamic State/ISIS in Kenya? Will he need support from Russia and China to defeat these Islamists who are entrenching themselves in Ruto’s government? Will President Rigathi abandon the failed American counter-terrorism strategies that has resulted in American troops being officially expelled from Burkina Faso, Mali, Iraq, and Niger? Considering that the Americans control the National Intelligence Service (NIS) of Kenya, can President Rigathi believe their concocted ‘intelligence’?
Did President Biden just reveal that Ruto’s government is supporting Neo-Nazis in Ukraine who are fighting against Russia?
Is Ruto’s regime supplying weapons to neo-Nazis in Ukraine so these armed neo-Nazis can kill more Russians?
Table of Contents
Who Will Replace Ruto as the President of the Republic of Kenya?
I’m proud to announce we’re working with Congress to designate Kenya a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA)…Our mutual support for Ukraine…And our work together in Haiti…these are responsibilities Kenya and America must meet in the years ahead — meet them together, as partners — for security.
President Joe Biden on May 23, 2024.
In that speech, did President Biden just reveal that Ruto’s government is supporting Neo-Nazis in Ukraine who are fighting against Russia? What does ‘mutual support for Ukraine’ mean? Is Ruto’s regime supplying weapons to neo-Nazis in Ukraine so these armed neo-Nazis can kill more Russians? Has the Governemnt of Kenya (GoK) considered the following words of President Vladimir Putin of Russia (see clip)?
Dmitry Medvedev – the former President of the Russian Federation – started his comments on the words of Putin as follows: “Yesterday, the President of Russia for the first time allowed the possibility of sending our weapons to regions that are at war with the states supplying weapons to Ukraine (or more precisely, using these weapons against our country). In other words, to forces in conflict with America and NATO countries”.
Russia will supply its long-range weapons to regions of the world, from where there will be sensitive attacks on countries supplying weapons to Ukraine
Valdimir Putin -President of the Russian Federation.
Medvedev then proclaimed that “Now, let the USA and their allies feel the direct use of Russian weapons by third parties. These parties or regions are intentionally not named, but they can be anyone who considers the USA and its allies their enemies, regardless of their political beliefs and international recognition”.
Medvedev continued, “Their enemy is the USA, which makes them our friends. Let the use of Russian weapons by these unnamed ‘regions’ be as destructive as possible for their (opponents) and our opponents”.
The Biden administration has already pushed Ruto’s regime to go to war with the Houthi in Yemen following GoK’s public support for American airstrikes on Houthis. All other nations in East Africa declined to involve themselves in any war against the Houthi. Even the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has declined to involve itself in a war against Houthi after the Saudi-led Sunni military alliance was defeated by the Houthis following an 8-year war as explained in the post titled, How Iran Defeated the America-Israel-Saudi Alliance in the Middle East.
Houthi are known to be one of the “third parties” that Russia will indirectly supply long-range weapons, including long-range ballistic missiles, that Kenya has no defense against. Moreover, as I explained previously, the Kenyan military is weak, and is the equivalent of the South Vietnamese Army of East Africa that is wholly dependent on American military for its survival in case of a conventional war.
Andrew Korybko – who is famous for coining the term hybrid warfare using the tools of conceptual engineering – has explained in his substack how Russia might arm third parties in what is clearly becoming a globalized proxy conflict between NATO and Russia. As Korybko notes, arming Iran offers the best return on investment because Iran already has an expeditionary force – the Shia Expeditionary Force – that is ready and willing to attack American targets in their region.
On regional peace and security in the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes region, I express optimism that Kenya and the U.S. will innovatively design appropriate defense and security frameworks to help Kenya, as the anchor state, and the region in general to deal with the peace and security challenges.
President William Ruto of Kenya on May 23, 2024.
In his speech at the White House, Ruto confirmed that Kenya will be involved in the internal affairs of the Great Lakes region in partnership with the Biden administration.
On May 19, 2024, a group of Americans – among them Tyler Thompson and Benjamin Reuben Zalman-Polun – attempted to assassinate President Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in a failed coup attempt that DRC has accused both the Biden and Ruto administrations of participating in it as explained in How USAID Financed and Facilitated the Failed 2024 Coup in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Kenya does not share any land border with the Democratic Republic of Congo – which is the nation that makes up the bulk of the Great Lakes region. However, Ruto would go on to publicly admit before a global audience on May 23, 2024, that his government has “deployed 1,000 troop — 1,000 troop — troops to DRC Congo”. This is interesting because the current iteration of the March 23 Movement (M23) called the Congo River Alliance was formed in Nairobi on Friday, 15 December 2023.
The Congo River Alliance stated publicly that its goal is to use the force of arms to overthrow the Governemnt of Felix Tshisekedi. Former President of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, publicly condemned this rebel group on December 18, 2023, and expressed his concerns that “individuals claiming to be pursuing the interest of greater peace and stability in the DRC initiated yet another political and military alliance to challenge the legitimate political status quo in the troubled country”. Ruto’s regime remained unfazed, though a Kenyan politician, Robert Alai, had publicly stated that Paul Kagame had asked William Ruto to sideline Kenyatta and scuttle the peace negotiations in DRC so that Tshisekedi can be weakened. Alai then stated that another Kalenjin, the Permanent Secretary of Kenya’s Foreign Affairs docket, Korir Singoei, had plotted to impose a new President for the Congolese people. This is the first failed regime change venture by the Kalenjin cabal.
What is even more interesting is that the Congo River Alliance was formed a week after the Government of DRC expelled Kenyan soldiers from Eastern DRC in December 2023. The expulsion came in the wake of accusation that the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (or Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo [FARDC]) had killed a Kenyan soldier on October 24, 2023, and that FARDC had participated in a campaign that had harassed Major General Jeff Nyagah of the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF). In turn, President Tshisekedi had accused KDF of co-habiting with M23 in Eastern DRC under the pretext of peacekeeping.
Now back to Ruto’s statement during the Press Conference at the White House. His statement raises a question: what troops had Ruto deployed to DRC in May 2024? This question should be considered alongside an interesting development that occurred on June 2, 2024 when FARDC claimed to have captured a KDF soldier fighting alongside M23 – an armed proxy of Paul Kagame that serves as an advance invasion force into the DRC by the Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF). Interestingly, Kagame’s social media propagadists were quick to claim that the alleged KDF soldier had been tortured during interrogation and then beheaded by FARDC. I will come to this topic later. For now, the information above provides the basis for asking the following question.
What will happen if William Ruto suddenly dies? The manner of death does not matter – whether Ruto is a victim of polonium poisoning from Russian or North Korean agents, or the Houthi shoot down his plane over the Indian Ocean or Red Sea, or whether his plane is shot down over the Congolese airspace by unknown armed actors. The question is who will replace Ruto as the President of the Republic of Kenya?
It Started With Tshisekedi, Then Kenyatta, and Now Rigathi
Rigathi Gachagua is not the first high profile politician that William Ruto and his inner circle of Kalenjin politicians has tried to manipulate and sideline. That honor belongs to President Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo (popularly known as Fatshi) of DRC – a nation that has accused Ruto’s government of involvement in the latest failed coup led by two Americans on May 19, 2024. The Congolese later captured an adult Kalenjin male in Kivu whom they claim to be a KDF soldier fighting for M23. As mentioned earlier, M23 is an armed proxy group sent by President Paul Kagame of Rwanda as the advance invasion force into the DRC, in preparation for overt invasion of Eastern Congo by the Rwandan Defense Forces. This is interesting as the Defence Minister of DRC has indicated that DRC will go to war with Rwanda soon (which probably means the day of the 2024 American elections).
Congolese state that he was captured fighting alongside M23.
Interestingly, the autocrat Paul Kagame is losing the unquestionable support that he has been enjoying from the West due to his brilliant, yet expensive, perception management campaign, as well as anti-Bantu vilification by a motley band of Somali activists and Tutsi-Tigray lobbyists who are integrated into the lobbying machinery of the Democratic Party – now led by Joe Biden.
Right now, Paul Kagame has realized that his situation mirrors the dusk of Manchu-led Qing Dynasty of China just prior to the Japanese-supported Xinhai (Hsinhai) Revolution when the Americans, British, and Europeans started supporting the Han Chinese over the Manchu tyranny. This was an unexpected development because the Americans and Europeans keept the Manchu in power during the earlier Taiping Revolution that sought to exterminate the Manchu who were described as non-Chinese aliens, just as the Tutsi are described as aliens from Somalia and Ethiopia.
For Kagame, he perceives the upcoming war between his autocracy and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to be quite similar to the Xinhai revolution that resulted in the Manchu genocide – which was described as such by Peter Zarrow in Historical Trauma: Anti-Manchuism and Memories of Atrocity in Late Qing China.
To his credit, Kagame and his Tutsi strategists have decided to sink the entire region into a Bantu-NiloCushitic War, which explains the propaganda from Kagame-linked new media outlets that warn that the Maasai, Hima, Oromo, Kalenjin, Hema, and Somalis face mortal risk, and they should unite against the Bantu agrarians in preparation for what is now called the Amalekite War. The Amalekites were a nomadic pastoralist people who attacked agrarian people and the Bible commands that the Amalekites should be exterminated in 1 Samuel 15:3.
The Kalenjin Cabal
In 2023, the Americans and the British governments had made wild promises to William Ruto and his inner circle of Kalenjin political actors whom I call the Kalenjin Cabal, but whom Kenyans simply describe as the Kalenjin Mafia. There were three key promises.
The first promise related to the toppling President Tshisekedi in DRC, or if this fails, surround DRC with governments hostile to Tshisekedi – including the regimes of Museveni in Uganda and Kagame in Rwanda. Other regional presidents to be roped into the anti-Tshisekedi cordon are Salva Kiir of South Sudan, João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço of the Republic of Angola, and Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of Congo. This explains Ruto’s newfound “intense” friendship (or what Kenyans call forced friendship) with João Lourenço of Angola and Denis Sassou Nguesso. Will the Kalenjin cabal be able to help place DRC into a cordon sanitaire – even a simple diplomatic cordon sanitaire?
Will the Kalenjin prove useful to the Government of the United Kingdom (GUK) which fears suffering the same fate that France suffered in the Sahel when the appeal of Francafrique collapsed and the French government was staggeringly booted out of the region and replaced with Russia. As I have explained in Why Ruto’s Regime and the British Government Support Kagame and the M23 Invasion of the Democratic Republic of Congo; unlike the United States Government (USG), GUK expects that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) that includes DRC and South Africa to steadily align with the upcoming BRICS+ framework, and this alignment will mean the loss of regional influence for GUK.
To counter this, GUK is secretly supporting Kagame and Museveni to destabilize SADC, and recent comments by Kagame’s regime that the DRC-M23 war is a war between SADC and the East African Community (EAC) betrays Kagame’s intention to start a regional war that will suck Eastern Africa and Southern Africa into a complex war involving national, regional, and international armed actors; and thus allow GUK to exercise some leverage over these regions under the pretext of “peace-enforcement and peace promotion”. The American government has stated that it is building up the capacity of KDF to be a force that can be deployed alongside American and NATO troops in the region. Is this the kind of deployment envisioned for KDF? Is this the reason why Biden wants Kenya to become a major non-NATO ally (MNNA), although the Republicans are likely to reject this request when it comes to Congress?
In my opinion, Kenya will not benefit much fromits designation as an MNNA. After Biden loses the elections in November 2024, President Trump will not focus much on Africa as I have explained in the post titled, Will Donald Trump Jail His Enemies and Hamstring the CIA?
Another key Kikuyu politician that the Kalenjin cabal has tried to victimize and malign is Uhuru Kenyatta – the former President of Kenya. There were calls made by the Kalenjin cabal that Uhuru Kenyatta should go on his knee and kiss the ring of power on the finger of William Ruto. This Kalenjin cabal used their political agents, including Kimani Ichungwah, Anne Waiguru, and Kithure Kindiki, to pass the message across. So far, Kenyatta has refused to bow down to Ruto’s demands and the Ruto-Kenyatta feud is liely to end like the Ruto-Tshisekedi feud with Ruto being on the losing side.
Impeach Gachagua, Control the Kikuyu
The second promise made to the Kalenjin cabal relates to domestic (Kenyan) politics where they have been assured of Western support if they implement an array of policies and enact a set of laws. What concerns me here is the counsel offered to the Kalenjin Cabal concerning the need to impeach Gachagua and control the Kikuyu. Does the Kalenjin Cabal understand that its actions risks driving them into a regional conflict if they try to establish an Anglo-American-supported Museveni-like dictatorship in Kenya?
Another more concerning issue that British and American governments predict is that Kenyans may call on EAC to help them depose a tyrannical regime. Consider the following two scenarios.
In the first scenario: The year is 2027 and Ruto has lost the election but refuses to leave power and orders the army and police to massacre Kenyans. In the second scenario: Ruto and Gachagua have a fallout that leads to political conflict that descends into an armed conflict that displaces Kenyans and forces Kenyans to enter Tanzania as refugees.
In these two scenarios, the British and Americans back Ruto, and Kenyans need help to free themselves from tyranny. If EAC is made up of people who share the same culture, it can easily raise an army and fight to depose Ruto from office just as Tanzania did when it deposed Idi Amin in Uganda. Also, look at how Shia Iran has assisted Shiites in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen to fight off savage terrorists. Now, the British and Americans want Somalis to pollute this brotherhood and ensure that no regional army can be raised in case an American-backed tyrant needs to be overthrown by the combined efforts of the armies in this region.
Kenya in the Fray.
Anti-Kikuyu Campaign Championed by the Kalenjin-Somali Axis
In June 2024, a group of Somali leaders proudly declared that the Somali are the enemy of the Kikuyu. They also implied that Somalis will rule Kenya after the Kalenjin. They even thanked Ruto for staffing key security dockets with Somalis who can easily assassinate Rigathi Gachagua and other Kikuyu elite when given the go-ahead.
To be fair, anti-Kikuyu sentiment has characterized Kenyan political life. To garner popular credo that would outlast his term in office, the Kalenjin Cabal believes that William Ruto should have harvested the heads of Kikuyu elite. They claim that these Kikuyu have a sense of entitlement. It is true that there are some wealthy Kikuyu who oppose Ruto’s administration out of baseless hatred, rather than any consideration for the needs of Kenyans. However, they are a minority of the Kikuyu.
The current political narrative designed to malign Rigathi Gachagua is a rehash of the 2007 41-versus-1 campaign narrative that divided Kenya into two camps – the camp of all Kenyan tribes sans the Kikuyu, and the camp of the Kikuyu. The difference now is that it is Kalenjin political actors resurrecting this political narrative rather than Raila Odinga.
There is widespread resentment against the Kikuyu in Kenya, and the Kalenjin circle intends to tap this resentment in their quest to sideline Gachagua. So, what should Gachagua do? In my opinion, Gachagua should engage in geopolitics because Ruto has ensured that Kenya has lost all the regional geopolitical influence that his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, had created. The best geopolitical card is the Bantu agrarian versus NiloCushitic nomadic pastolarist conflict that Ruto has created alongside his partners in crime – Paul Kagame and Yoweri Museveni.
Will Willian Ruto Suffer a Violent Death?
Basically, a Bantu versus Nilote political narrative has undertones of annihilatory politics that can fundamentally change the Kenyan political scene permanently. However, it offers the advantage that resentment against the Kikuyu will be replaced by a higher cause – a meta-ethnic civilizational cause whose potential outcome could be the generation of a conflict similar to the Shia-Sunni conflict in the Middle East. Such a conflict has the potential to cripple the Kalenjin cabal and at worse, set in motion a series of events that will lead to the demise of Ruto’s regime.
Gachagua should engage in geopolitics because Ruto has ensured that Kenya has lost all the regional geopolitical influence that his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, had created.
END OF PART ONE.
