A victory for al-Shabaab in Somalia will set the Kenyan Government on the path to forced popular reforms, while simultaneously destroying the current nature of the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF), besides shattering the myth of the nation-state or the republic. Should al-Shabaab invade Kenya, then both the Kenyan Government and KDF will be fundamentally transformed, and the power of the current Kenyan elite significantly weakened as a new a politicized KDF emerges alongside a new ideologically-motivated political leadership. This will be a win for Kenya and Kenyans in general. In other words, the victory of al-Shabaab in Somalia will become a victory for the Kenyan masses and loss for the rented elite in this nation.
Why the liberation of Somalia by Al-Shabaab will become a victory for the Kenyan masses and loss for the rented elite in Kenya. Why a successful revolution by al-Shabaab in Somalia will unconceal the truth about Kenya.
Vietnam War and Development of the Woke(ness) Ideology
An incompetent military that is led by a corrupt leadership is always scared of being dragged into a war by an ideologically-committed adversary – whether that adversary is another conventional military or non-state actors or armed peasants. During the Vietnam War, the incompetent South Vietnamese Army (SVA) was fearful of the ideologically-committed North Vietnamese Army (NVA), and the South Vietnamese elite chose to become an American client rather than engage in genuine reforms to address the concerns of the South Vietnamese masses. To guard themselves against the NVA, the South Vietnamese elite formed an alliance with the Royal Governments of Laos and Cambodia, and then used this alliance of Cambodia, Laos, and South Vietnam to lobby for American protection. This alliance dragged the Americans into South Vietnam where the American military was defeated, and the Governments of all the three nations – Cambodia, Laos, and South Vietnam – were toppled by the NVA and the armed peasants who made up the bulk of the Viet Cong.
The victory of the Viet Cong and NVA against the might of the American military power has been the subject of intense study by al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and their affiliates. As I explained in Black Swan Hamas, the October 7th attacks by Hamas in Israel were inspired by the Tet Offensive that allowed both the NVA and Viet Cong to initiate a new phase of fighting that ultimately led to the collapse of the Republic of South Vietnam.
It is important to note that the Tet Offensive was defeated by the Americans, but its psychological blow marked the beginning of the end of American military presence in South Vietnam. Prior to the Tet Offensive, the American government was confident that it could keep its promise to protect the South Vietnamese government, as well as the royal families in Laos and Cambodia.
Another observation that I made was that the Tet Offensive allowed American university students to revolutionize their anti-war narratives, a process that energized the anti-war movement, and indirectly set the stage for leftist intellectuals to dominate elite universities, while edging out conservative anti-Vietcong intellectuals from the universities. The end result was that American universities became a near monolithic citadel of marxist-tinged intellectualism, and radiated this form of intellectualism throughout the academic ecosystem and the American educational system in general. It is within this academic environment that wokeness as an ideology and a form of social justice came into existence. It is for this reason that anti-wokeness activists blame the Vietnamese for defeating the Americans during the Vietnam War – a defeat that set the stage for wokeness to arise and become a dominant sociopolitical force.
Kenya as the South Vietnam of East Africa
A successful revolution by al-Shabaab in Somalia will bring forth the truth about Kenya. This is not the truth in its limited sense that implies correctness, but truth in the Heideggerian sense of unconcealing or revealing. For instance, the weakness of KDF and the fact that the Government of Kenya (GoK) has transformed Kenya into a rented state will be revealed when GoK asks for foreign military assistance during a state of war, while instituting unpopular foreign policies hostile to the Kenyan masses. That is, during a state of war, it will be revealed that GoK is led by a hostile elite who do not prioritize the vital interests of the Kenyan masses. This is the truth that GoK and KDF want to keep concealed.
Another set of truths that GoK and KDF fear will be revealed concern the myth of the nation-state, as well as the myth that American counter-terrorism strategies (CTS) lead to victory. It is President William Ruto who publicly denounced the popular revolution supported by the people of Niger. This revolution in Niger affirmed the American CTS are disastrous for African nations fighting armed Islamists within their territories. Maybe, al-Shabaab’s invasion of Kenya and disproving of the American CTS would trigger a popular Kenyan revolution against Ruto and his Anglo-American backers. If this is the case, then this is a truth that both GoK and KDF want to keep concealed.
The shattering of the myth of the nation-state, or the myth of the republic, will hit GoK hard. As I explained in TerrorFront Kenya: Threat Assessment of Al-Shabaab in Kenya Prior to Its Takeover of Somalia, KDF is an anti-revolutionary corporate military that wastes the lives of its soldiers in corporate ventures in foreign soils such as Somalia where KDF has been implicated in illegal smuggling that benefits al-Shabaab and harms Kenyans. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) of Kenya goes a step further and operates essentially like a private intelligence firm that can be hired by foreign actors – both state actors and non-state actors. Its intelligence products have been described by partner security agencies as obtuse, error-filled, and non-specific in nature. This means that both KDF and NIS cannot successfully fight in any ideologically-motivated war. Needless to say that they lack the capacity to engage in information warfare against ideological narratives. To make matters worse, they cannot be assisted by GoK which lacks the capacity to generate counter-myths to adversarial myths such as Islamism.
Anoospheric People
As I have explained in the Importance of Grand Narratives, Black People have consistently been an anoospheric people i.e a people incapable of creating their own noosphere. For this reason, they adopt on the noosphere created by others. An example is found in the post titled, Which God Should Christians Not Worship where the following is mentioned:
The Israelites wanted to claim that they originated from the Mesopotamia, which was the home of the mother civilization as I have explained in Holy Sumerians. This is akin to African Americans claiming to be the descendants of Ancient Egyptians because they want to be associated with the greatness of the Ancient Egyptian Civilization.
Basically, that quote states that some African Americans have been trying to appropriate the noosphere of the Ancient Egyptians as their own.
Understanding black people as an anoospheric people helps explain why Wahhabism and Salafism appeals to a large number of Black Sunnis, while the most superstitious forms of pentecostalism appeal to a large number of their Black protestant Christians.
This understanding explains why GoK and KDF are imprisoned in the paradigm lock whose premise is that the only worldview that matters is the Anglo-American worldview. In this worldview, if you are validated by the Americans, then you are invincible. This is why both GoK and KDF believe that American military and financial support makes them invincible. However, something is happening that really discomforts them.
The victory of al-Shabaab in Somalia threatens to destroy this paradigm lock, and this has dire consequences for the militarily-weak KDF and transactional GoK. If al-Shabaab manages to defeat the American-backed Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), then any ideologically-motivated armed group can defeat any national army and replace the nation state with another form of government, such as theocracy, oligarchy, federation, autocracy, or confederation. The biggest fear among Kenyan elite is Kenya becoming a confederation. As I explained in the Fatal Future of Kenya: On Ethno-Terrorism, Acrid Politics, Sunni Islamism, and Low Information Population:
On the eve of Independence, Kenya had a devolved constitution, which it transitioned with to Independence, whereupon Kenyatta and like-minded cadre struggled unremittingly to destroy devolution and centralize the management of national resources…Kenyatta’s strategy to destroy Majimboism (Federalism) was quite simple, yet remarkably brilliant – the regional assemblies were starved of finances and revenues, hence bankrupting them and forcing them to seek an acceptable accommodation with Kenyatta’s government. Kenyatta used this opportunity to force a merger between KADU (Kenya African Democratic Union) and KANU (Kenya African National Union), thus ushering in a unitary state ruled by a centralized government
Jomo Kenyatta did all he could to kill federation because he feared that it could transition into a confederation.
Confederation to Accommodate Sunni Islamists
A confederation requires states in the nation to have their own security services as has happened in Ethiopia where ethnic federalism has allowed regional states to have presidents and special state militia. The Ethiopian military is far stronger than KDF. A weak KDF cannot control armed ethnonationalist militias inside Kenya, and any confederation is regarded by the current political elite as simply dismembering of Kenya and death of the myth of Kenya.
However, an al-Shabaab invasion of Kenya after it (al-Shabaab) liberates Mogadishu can force the Americans to ask GoK to become a confederation so that Islamists can have a state that is ruled by Sharia law. The French and the Americans asked Malians and Nigerien governments to transition into confederations so that Islamists can rule themselves under sharia law. The Malians and Nigeriens rejected this proposal and expelled both the American and French armed forces from their nations. Some of these expelled American soldiers have been building an American military base in Wajir, Kenya.
Armed Cognitive Feces
“What do you have between your ears”, asks the KDF trainer to his recruits. “Feces”, the recruits answer back. “If you think you have a brain, where do you go”, asks the trainer to his recruits. “Into the grave”, the recruits answer back in unison and then add “the head of a good soldier does not have a brain”. This is repeated three times every morning during training of the recruits in order to instill what KDF calls discipline among its cadets.
As I explained in TerrorFront Kenya: Threat Assessment of Al-Shabaab in Kenya Prior to Its Takeover of Somalia, KDF is unable to develop any strategy for fighting an Islamist insurgency, something that Aboud Rogo openly ridiculed in his fiery sermons when he described the KDF soldier as only fit to fight cattle rustlers, not insurgents or other soldiers. It is not only Islamists who ridicule KDF, the average Kenyan derogatorily describes Kenyan soldiers as armed cognitive feces. In turn, Kenyan soldiers have developed a unique form of episetmophobia that denigrates critical thinking with passion. A common refrain from senior KDF and NIS officers is that critical thinking is what led CIA to be staffed with university-educated liberals instead of under-educated conservatives like those who ran anti-communist death squads in Latin America.
This epistemophobia has affected how KDF and NIS perceive elite American universities and American intellectuals in general. They consider these liberal intellectuals as responsible for the downfall of the political right across Asia, South America, and Africa, as well as the ousting from power in 1994 of GoK’s ally – the Apartheid Government of South Africa.
Senior KDF and NIS officers were shocked when Leftist politicians took power in Colombia (which they regarded as a kindred nation ruled by American-supported right-wing governments). What disturbed them the most was how this Colombian government was embraced by the American government, and praised by American intellectuals in American Universities. It is for this reason that what Kenyans call the armed cognitive feces hate the American intellectuals in American universities, while GoK fears that these American intellectuals will welcome and support al-Shabaab if it adopts progressive socio-economic models unlike the present rabidly corrupt FGS that has instituted a caste system known as 4.5 Clan System.
What Happens When The Narrative Collapses?
The problem with soldiers with low cognitive capabilities and equally consciousness is that they can easily succumb to depression and commit suicide if the myth they were fighting for is debunked and invalidated. However, it is not these soldiers who should be dealing with the tasks of myth validation or invalidation. That is the task of policymakers and public intellectuals. However, narrative collapse that follows the debunking of a myth tends to have society-wide effects.
Consider the fact that China developed into the second-largest global economy without adopting neoliberalism. The myth of neoliberalism was regarded as unassailable. Americans were punished during its implementation through loss of manufacturing jobs as the American government and its large corporations favored de-industrialization of America and outsourcing of jobs. However, China’s economic success without neoliberalism has generated a harsh backlash in America against the neoliberalists who dominate the American government and the Mainstream Media (MSM). This backlash manifested itself as the Trump movement that put Donald Trump in the White House in 2016. So far, the MSM and its government backers have been unable to stymie the narrative collapse of neoliberalism and globalization.
The inability of the American Government to build new appealing narratives has led to Israel suffering a defeat following the October 7th attacks as I have explained in Information Warfare Against Israel Following Propaganda of the Deed Attacks. So far, GoK has refused to acknowledge this narrative collapse and its consequences, including consequences that will impact its planned combat campaign in Haiti.
For Kenya, there are licit fears that most people in the world will celebrate the killing of Kenyan policemen who will be deployed in Haiti. For GoK, its concerns is that killing of Kenyan policemen in Haiti will be praised and condoned by American intellectuals in American universities as I have explained in Operation Maiti: Why the Kenyan Einsatzgruppen Mission to Haiti Faces Opposition and Risks Protests in American Universities.
If the American public can turn against GoK and American intellectuals publicly support al-Shabaab as the rulers of Somalia, then GoK will face its own loss of narrative legitimacy which would significantly weaken the rented Kenyan elite. On the upside, for ordinary Kenyans and Somalians, this will usher a new dawn for them.
